Forum:2010 Atlantic hurricane season/Tomas
21L.TOMAS AoI: Far Eastern Atlantic Despite forming in a climatologically unfavorable area, a circulation is already building up and I will be surprised if the TWO doesn't pick it up a few hours from now. HurricaneSpin Talk to me 18:54, October 23, 2010 (UTC) 91L.INVEST Hello! Strong tropical wave located near the mouth of the Amazon... bizarrely far south. NHC has this at 10% risk right now. --Patteroast 20:20, October 27, 2010 (UTC) :Thanks for merging this with the AoI, I suspected they might have been the same, but I wasn't sure. Anyway... 20% now. --Patteroast 03:46, October 28, 2010 (UTC) ::If it doesn't interact too much with South America, some of the models are making this a hurricane in the east Caribbean. The other two invests are pretty much just for fun, but this one could do some damage. --Patteroast 15:34, October 28, 2010 (UTC) :::NHC bumped the risk up to medium, 30%. --Patteroast 18:11, October 28, 2010 (UTC) ::::Up to 50%, the 18Z run from GFS brings it right over Haiti, and then it stalls over the Turks and Caicos. HurricaneSpin Talk to me 01:24, October 29, 2010 (UTC) :::::There's a TCFA out by the NRL effective 291200Z. --88.102.101.245 15:39, October 29, 2010 (UTC) ::::::NHC has this at 80% risk. I don't see a way that this can avoid becoming Tomas. --Patteroast 15:57, October 29, 2010 (UTC) (Jake, not logged in) Circulation getting closed with TS winds. SAY HELLO TO TOMAS! Tropical Storm Tomas Wow! We have now tied where 1995 ended and if we get just 3 more storms, we will have the second most active season on record, behind only 2005. And Tomas may very well be our first U.S. landfalling hurricane in 2010, but I personally don't see a U.S. landfall from Tomas. It all depends on how long that front says over the southeast. Currently the NHC forecast calls for a powerful major hurricane heading south of Jamacia, and possibly to central Cuba, the Bahamas, and out to sea from there. I don't know how unusual it is for a storm to form that far south in October, but if someone can mention the average frequency - another example being Joan - I would greatly appreciate it. Ryan1000 21:30, October 29, 2010 (UTC) :I have a feeling that this stalls in south Caribbean, loops, hits Hispaniola as an MH and gets picked up by a trough. It's still too early too tell, though, whether it stays south enough and not to be affected by the trough and hit the US. Also, according to Jeff Masters blog: "The formation of a tropical storm so far south and east this late in the season is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (60°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close--it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 60°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles. Tomas' track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented. There have been only two other tropical storms that formed after October 15 south of 12°N and east of 60°W: Hurricane Jose, which was a tropical storm in that region on October 18, 1999, and Tropical Storm Nicolas, on October 16, 2003. Tomas most reminds me of Hurricane Joan of 1988, which was a tropical storm on October 14 near Tomas' current location, and later strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane that hit Nicaragua." HurricaneSpin Talk to me 23:25, October 29, 2010 (UTC) ::NHC issued a special report...seems to have winds increased by 20mph to 60mph in 2 hours. Looks like we will definitely be seeing Hurricane Tomas. Still forecasted to become a major hurricane in the central Caribbean and the models still show it making landfall in Haiti (still too far away to say it will make landfall in Haiti; but if it does, it will more than likely be a cat 2 or 3 hurricane and will cause some great damage). This could be bad! -- Yqt1001 01:20, October 30, 2010 (UTC) :::I'm telling you, man. Everybody's sitting here saying "hey, it's Halloween; season's over, nothing to worry about" and not paying attention and then along comes Tomas. Right now, all indications are that this thing has nothing but warm water and low shear in its future. It's forecast to be a major hurricane aimed at Jamaica in five days. A lot of the models are thinking it's gonna recurve back out into the Atlantic. That means it would probably run over one of the big islands, be it Cuba, Hispaniola or Jamaica. The prospect of a major hurricane hitting any one of those places is not good, especially when you're talking about Haiti, where hurricanes kill thousands and they're probably still recovering from that earthquake back in January. NHC seems to think that the ridge to the north will be stronger, forcing it to move more to the west, but with a large frontal system expected to move in by days 6 and 7, recurvature seems likely at some point and the farther west you go, Florida starts to drift into the mix. So any way you look at it, the prospect of a major hurricane romping around in the Caribbean is not good. This could get ugly very fast. Needless to say, I've got a bad feeling about this one. HurricaneSpin, that's exactly what the GFS model is predicting and that is a scary forecast. This is a scary storm, gentlemen. See my note in Shary's section if you want to read my historical perspective on this ridiculous season that just keeps on truckin', because I've got my hands full with the present on this storm. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 05:31, October 30, 2010 (UTC) ::::Just under hurricane strength with the new advisory. I would be amazed if it's not upgraded by the next one. --Patteroast 08:55, October 30, 2010 (UTC) ::::It must be feared that Tomas will affect, maybe hit or landfall on Hispaniola. It must be feared that Tomas is a killer hurricane with maybe thousands of casualities there. Tomas is definitely the storm we feared the whole seasons long. --88.102.101.245 14:05, October 30, 2010 (UTC) Hurricane Tomas Upgraded to hurricane with 75mph winds at the 11AM EDT advisory today. Yqt1001 14:55, October 30, 2010 (UTC) :Developing a very large eye and now a complete eyewall. Convection firing up all over, outflow boundaries to its west and noth, and it looks like there are multiple vorticies in the eye. This is one dangerous-looking storm, and even though it's shrunk in size since it was first named, it's still almost too big to fit into the Caribbean! Rapid intensification is possible in the next 48 hours, before it hits some shear. An interesting but not-so-fun fact is that EVERY November major hurricane in the Caribbean in the past 60 years, of which there are only three, got retired and all of them turned northeast at one point. A variety of track options exist for Tomas, a Spanish name. It could skirt Venezuela and hit Nicaragua like Joan, dive into Honduras like Mitch, veer into western Cuba like Michelle, strike eastern Cuba like Paloma, plough through Jamaica like Dean, turn north into Haiti like Hazel, stall near the Windward Passage and Haiti like Flora, turn northeast into Antigua like Omar, or reverse eastward like Lenny. IMO, the most likely track is a slowdown in the Central Caribbean, clipping the eastern end of Jamaica as a cat. 3, continuing northward, strengthening and expanding before turning northeast, making landfall in Haiti, then dumping its rains and being absorbed into a trough or another tropical system. This storm will likely affect Haiti, which has so far escaped all the other storms this season, and that would be devastating as they are suffering from a massive cholera epidemic and over a million are still living in crowded tents after the earthquake. Watch out for any eyewall replacement cycles that would be significant to the storm's size, windspeed and intensity. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:03, October 30, 2010 (UTC) ::With Shary's surprise upgrade, this makes 12 hurricanes on the season. TWELVE! That ties 1969 for second most all time. Only 2005 had more. That's incredible. The situation still looks pretty ugly for the Greater Antilles, despite the fact that it looks like shear will increase more than previously thought midway through the period. And no, I will not pronounce Tomas with a Spanish accent, sorry. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 20:02, October 30, 2010 (UTC) :I guess 2010 taught us all a lesson: as I mentioned back in the early part of this year-"don't judge June or July; Judge the peak of the season, Okaye?". I will never buscast about any more hurricane seasons in the future. 2010 taught me that lesson for good. And about Shary, that storm never,never should have became a hurricane for all intents and purposes, but somehow, just somehow, it did. My forecast on Tomas is highly uncertain: I mean, my worst fear this hurricane is not that it could hit the U.S. as a strong major hurricane(not that that's a good thing or anything), but my WORST fear of all is that it could squirm around in the Carribean for a long time and do something like what Hurricane Flora did in 1963, slaughtering several thousands of people in mountanous areas of western Cuba and throughout Hispaniola. This could be the deadliest storm of this hurricane season, and also deadliest worldwide this year. I have a bad feeling for that fear to happen... Ryan1000 00:24, October 31, 2010 (UTC) ::Tomas has been upgraded to a category two hurricane. However, the models do NOT want to intensify it, except maybe in the short term, and are actually predicting that some shear should slightly weaken in in the next couple days. The official forecast has it becoming a category three after that... somewhere south of Haiti, and wandering north. Yikes.--Patteroast 09:49, October 31, 2010 (UTC) :::I actually see only one possibility to avoid a major disaster on Haiti and that is Tomas approaching as near as possible to Jamaica and Eastern Cuba and then chasing to the North East through the Windward Passage as fast as possible. However considering the cone at TAU 120 it seems that Tomas will pass straight through the Tiburon Penisular as a cat 3+ firstly and, worse, getting catched in the Gulf of Gonaïves with the high mountains on the East and the North causing torrential rain falls. That will get bad, really bad. --88.102.101.245 10:18, October 31, 2010 (UTC) ::I agree that the best possible scenario for Tomas is that he nears Jamacia as a major hurricane, and then races off to the northeast, allowing it to miss any land masses by a long shot, and not cause a catastrophe in Haiti due to it's rapid forward speed. Here's to hoping it does just that. Recently, Tomas has been losing itself a bit in the midst of this wind shear and dry air, but it's going to be strong enough to fight the unfavorable conditions for now, according to the models. Unfortunately, it could pull a Hazel on the track it's going, but miss the U.S. due to the cold front over the southeast. This thing could be really ugly for Hispaniola, but no one wants to see a catastrophe from this thing... Stay tuned. Ryan1000 14:08, October 31, 2010 (UTC) :Weakened to a strong category one, but still could become a major hurricane when it hits Hispaniola by Friday or so. This thing has gone from bad to worse for the Carribean. Ryan1000 16:09, October 31, 2010 (UTC) ::With the 17:00 UTC advisory the NHC the forecasters decided themself for the worst scenario of all, at this moment it appears like a direct hit on Port-au-Prince with passing the center just over it. The system might stall on the mountains to the NE and maybe Tomas won't make ist over them. It will rain and rain and wash away what was left from the quake. I think officials and humanitarian aid workers are warned but there is nothing they can do. It's just impossible to evacuate any people from the most endangered areas, due to bad infrastructure. --88.102.101.245 21:40, October 31, 2010 (UTC) :Gah, Tomas is a sorry excuse for a hurricane right now. That shear is really taking it's toll on this storm. It barely looks like a hurricane on the sattelite imagery. However, I still think Tomas will be able to push through this tough spot, but the current forecast doesn't call for a major hurricane anymore. However, a 105 mph category two in Haiti doesn't leave very much behind, a la Hazel. This storm must be watched very carefully. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 02:39, November 1, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Tomas (2nd time) :Tomas has fallen completely apart (but is still intact, barely)...but in the past 6 hours hasnt lost any strength (at 45mph winds) so it seems its at its bottom before it starts strengthening again (sometime in the next 24 hours according to the NHC). Still could be a cat 2 before landfall, really it depends on how fast it reorganizes into a hurricane. Lots of doubts of when it will be, some models even forecast a category 3 hurricane upon landfall. Yqt1001 20:58, November 1, 2010 (UTC) ::Another thing that worries me about Tomas now is that the models diverge so much. The models take it anywhere from back into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico like Lenny or Omar, to making landfall in southern Jamacia and roaring through eastern Cuba as a strong hurricane, and even as far as into central america like Joan. This storm is like how Richard and Paula were, with lots of uncertainty in his forecast, but he could be much, much worse. Keep an eye on Tomas; he isn't looking so promising as to miss causing heavy damage on land... Ryan1000 03:13, November 2, 2010 (UTC) :::Well the disparity in the models probably has a lot to do with how each model forecasts the future intensity of Tomas. A deeper system will move more to the west, while a shallower, weaker system will move more to the east from what you're telling me (although I'd think it'd be the other way around). The thing is, when it comes to Haiti, the intensity of Tomas is not gonna matter. What matters is how rich the atmospheric moisture content is going to be. How well-developed and expansive are Tomas's outer bands going to be? Haiti is going to be on the east side of the circulation. That's not good. That means those inflow bands will be pouring over those mountains and down onto Haiti's coastal plains from the east and southeast. That will enhance orographic lifting and exacerbate the rainfall, making it worse than if the bands were coming over the plains from the west straight off the water. This is similar to what happened in 1994 with then Tropical Storm Gordon. This also happened in 1935 with the weak October hurricane that killed 2,000 people in Haiti. Worst case scenario is that we get a repeat of those events, which is a very real possibility. It will all depend on the size of the circulation and how well developed Tomas' outer banding features are. Haiti's saving grace, however, may be Tomas' foreward speed. If Tomas accelerates and goes by quickly, which I think it might, Haiti will probably be spared a severe flood event. It'll depend on how quickly and how strongly Tomas feels that front. With the current forecast and the way things are shaping up right now, there's reason to be optimistic. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 06:52, November 3, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Depression Tomas Thought I should note that Tomas has degenerated all the way down to a depression. Man, I am glad that Tomas didn't actually turn out to be a category three hurricane at this point. Although it is still forecast to become a hurricane again... but it's almost like the storm we have now and the storm that went through the Lesser Antilles are two different systems. --Patteroast 12:54, November 3, 2010 (UTC) :Eric, I know that its intensity won't make a difference when it comes to these kinds of scenarios, but the main thing that matters is, as I mentioned earlier, its forward speed. Hurricane Jeanne of 2004 was a snail like hurricane for Haiti, and the storm killed over three thousand people there due to its slow motion. If this storm slows down before hitting Haiti like Jeanne did, then this storm could easily kill over 3,000 people, too. The weaker it gets, the more it will move west and possibly hit central America. I was just saying if Tomas exploded earlier, it could have been disasterous for the Virgins and Puerto Rico. That doesn't seem so likely now, but we can't feel optimistic just because Tomas is weakening. The intensity does not always matter with storms; Agatha most recently showed us that earlier this year, being one of the worst natural disasters in Guatemala's history, largely due to flooding and mudslides. And some trivia(not sure why it wasn't mentioned earlier): this is one of a few times we get to see two storms with the same name in the same year. The south Pacific had a cyclone Tomas hit Fiji in February, and this year we could have an Atlantic Tomas hit Haiti in November. Anyways, with this Tomas, looking on the sattelite imagery, this is a very large and expansive tropical storm, so it could deliver a foot or two of rain over Haiti. The majority of the convection is on the east side of this storm, so Haiti could easily suffer a flood catastrophe from this monster storm. It reminds me of many other cases of this in the past, but if this thing does kill thousands of people in Haiti, the only thing I would want to happen from there is for the WMO to feel passion for the poor third worlders and permanently retire the name. I was really pissed as to why Hanna wasn't retired, and if I was given the chance, I would have killed them where they stood for not retiring Gordon. Stay tuned on Tomas... Ryan1000 16:55, November 3, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Tomas (3rd time) And now it's back up to TS as of the 2100 UTC advisory. TS warning and Hurricane watch issued for Haiti too. I would like to think they'd be prepared for Tomas, but sadly I doubt it. --HurricaneMaker99 21:38, November 3, 2010 (UTC) :HM99, to me it doesn't really matter whether or not it re-becomes a hurricane by the time it reaches Haiti; this large and expansive storm could kill thousands in Haiti even if it doesn't reach hurricane strength by the time it gets there. We must keep an eye on this storm, no matter how strong it is at its landfall. This storm could become one of the deadliest Atlantic hurricanes on record if it moves as slow as it's going right now. Stay tuned. Hurricane Tomas could be coming again in the next 24-36 hours. God, help them... Ryan1000 01:15, November 4, 2010 (UTC) ::Hmmm... it appears Haiti might avoid a landfall from Tomas, but this expansive storm will still deliver severe flooding there, whether or not it makes landfall. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 20:04, November 4, 2010 (UTC) :::Yeah, Haiti's definitely in for a nasty one; the worst since Jeanne, perhaps? And IR imagery shows a giant blob of convection making a b-line for Haiti... it's only begun, I'm afraid. As Ryan said, stay tuned. (I feel like a 1960's TV news anchor...) --HurricaneMaker99 00:09, November 5, 2010 (UTC) Hurricane Tomas (2nd time) Upgraded back to hurricane strength! --Patteroast 10:19, November 5, 2010 (UTC) :Well, it doesn't really matter whether or not it became a hurricane, what matters if Haiti can escape a flood catastrophe from this fucking massive monster. It has really expanded over the last few hours, and the outer rainbands are approaching the back end of the country and into the DR. The eye isn't far from land, either, and as you mentioned, HM99, it isn't impossible it could become a major hurricane. If it does become one, let it be out to sea, rather than at the next six hours or so. We must watch this thing very carefully. Help them... Ryan1000 11:38, November 5, 2010 (UTC) ::It most likely will be out at sea; Tomas is still 25 kt short of major hurricane strength, and it's not like he's intensifying as quickly as Charley, Ike, or Igor did. And I think your prayer worked, Ryan: Tomas is accelerating, so it should clear Haiti sooner than we feared. --HurricaneMaker99 19:06, November 5, 2010 (UTC) :::One more thing; if Tomas kills as many people in Haiti as Hanna and Gordon did, then I think the WMO is less likely to snub Tomas since it was considerably stronger than both storms. --HurricaneMaker99 19:09, November 5, 2010 (UTC) ::Who knows... Hopefully it caused or will cause little or no loss of life... Thank god it's smaller now and accelerating much, much faster. Even so, it doesn't matter if it peaked as a 2 or could be a 3, the WMO doesn't really retire like retiring hurricanes in Haiti. They just make up bullsh!t excuses not to retire them like "the emergency officials there screwed up" or "they never gave their people adequate warning". This is unbeliavably rude and unfair. If a tropical storm killed 1,000 people in Haiti but wasn't retired, then a different tropical storm that killed only 100 people in the U.S. also shouldn't be. It's prejudice and unfair to discriminate against people based on who they are and what they have. Is my life any more valuable than the life of a poor person in Haiti? Of course not! Maybe the WMO needs to reread Abe Lincoln's Gettysburg Adress issued in November 1863. The most important part of the Gettysburg Adress IMO is the phrase "all men are created equal". Why would the WMO not retire a storm that kills several thousand poor people in Hispaniola but retire one that kills 100 wealthy, rich people in the U.S.? Why? I just don't get it. I just don't understand where the F**k they are coming from. Here's hoping it wasn't so bad... Ryan1000 20:38, November 5, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Tomas (4th time) Back to TS. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 14:13, November 6, 2010 (UTC) :Currently no deaths have came from Hispaniola from Tomas, but unfortunately, I don't think it's likely they got off so easy from this thing. Sadly, i'd be surprised if Tomas hasn't killed at least 70 people there... Hopefully it killed no one as to have killed hundreds... Anyways, he's pretty much gone now. Ryan1000 16:17, November 6, 2010 (UTC) : :I thought there was 7 reported deaths from Haiti and 2 missing. Also new damage reports from St. Lucia...damage is $500,000,000! Thats way too much for an island. Yqt1001 16:22, November 6, 2010 (UTC) : Hurricane Tomas (3rd time) Straight out of the blue, Tomas is a hurricane yet again. Check the NHC's just-issued update statement for proof. --Dil (chat) 23:26, November 6, 2010 (UTC) :Ytq, 500 million isn't extremely big for St. Lucia. TS Debbie in 1994 did 780 million in damage there, and Dean of 2007 caused hundreds of millions in damage there, too. However, thank the lord only 7 people died in Haiti from this thing. He might not be retired after all... When it weakenes to a TS again, it will tie Hurricane Kyle of 2002 by being the only storm known to reach tropical storm strength on 5 seperate occasions. However, the best news is Haiti escaped a catastrophe from this thing. Maybe the "feared to be very bad" storm wasn't so bad after all. Ryan1000 00:17, November 7, 2010 (UTC) :Under revision I noticed that...also under revision I also noticed its 200mill not 500mill. Never a bad time to be wrong! :) I am very surprised that it ended like this for Haiti, the odds just didnt seem to be there for it to end good..just shows how much preparation they had compared to St Lucia. Still dont know about the damage, could be just as shocking as Matthew or it could be very little and stay lower than $600mill, which would determine its retirement worthiness.(there could also be a lot of indirect deaths from the next time it rains there and everyone is back to the landslide prone valleys)...also can someone teach me how to get the indents working properly? :/ Yqt1001 05:11, November 7, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Tomas (5th time) ::Downgraded to tropical storm, and post-tropical. Final advisory. --Patteroast 21:00, November 7, 2010 (UTC)